2007, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Jungclaus, Johann; Baehr, Johanna; Haak, Helmuth; Jacob, Daniela; Koenigk, Torben; Marotzke, Jochem
The evolution and stability of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic under global warming conditions, its observational characteristics, and the detectability of such anthropogenic changes have been investigated with the MPI-M climate model. For realistic projections of the climate evolution in the 21st century, the model indicates a reduction of 30-42%, but no total breakdown of the overturning circulation. Natural variability on time scales of days to decades requires long-term observations in the Atlantic to detect a potential decrease.